Market Watch: Gold Slides as Fed Hike Bets Build (2 November 2026)
By the numbers
$3,898.90 December gold futures settlement on Friday 30 October, a one-year low | 10–2 Fed vote to hold rates at 3.75% to 4.00%; both dissenters wanted a hike |
~72% Market-implied chance of a Fed hike in December (CME FedWatch, via InstaForex) | $104.12 WTI crude settlement on Friday, up more than 15% in October |
The week in one paragraph: The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, but two policymakers voted for a hike, and strong US growth and inflation data kept a December move in play. Higher-rate expectations weighed on precious metals. Gold futures fell to a one-year low on Friday and silver dropped below $50. The dollar index edged up about 0.2% on the week, while sterling firmed late on as the dollar slipped in a tech-led sell-off. Oil stayed above $100 after a tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Last week's report is here if you want the run-up to the Fed meeting.
Gold
December gold futures fell $132.50, or 3.29%, on Friday to settle at $3,898.90 an ounce, a 52-week low, according to Investrade. That left them down about 2.9% for the week and roughly 30% below January's record of $5,595.
Spot gold closed the week at $3,875.19, down 3.01%, after trading between $3,870.26 and $4,083.41, per CapitalStreetFX. Fortune's daily price tracker put gold 7.26% below its level of a month earlier on Friday morning.
The main pressure came from rates. Gold pays no interest, so when markets expect higher real yields it tends to lose appeal. The Fed's split vote, a strong third-quarter GDP print and firm inflation all pushed in that direction. Silver fell harder, down 8.77% on the week to $49.11 spot, as metals were sold alongside a slide in technology shares.
The US dollar
The dollar index (DXY) traded around 102 on Friday and was up about 0.2% for the week and 0.5% for October, according to InstaForex. Capp Notes recorded a Friday close of 101.92, down 0.12% on the day. A week earlier the index had closed at 101.81, per RTTNews.
For UK readers, GBP/USD rose 0.46% on Friday to 1.3389 as the dollar softened. FXMacroData described broad dollar selling across G10 currencies, with net speculative dollar longs falling to 14,121 contracts in the week to 27 October.
US Treasury yields fell on Friday as investors sought safety. The 2-year ended at 4.56% and the 10-year at 4.94%, according to Capp Notes. So the dollar held its weekly gain even as yields eased, helped by expectations that the Fed is more likely to raise rates than cut them.
What's driving it
- The Fed: Rates held at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10–2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a quarter-point rise. The statement said "Inflation remains elevated." CME FedWatch data cited by InstaForex put the chance of a December hike at about 72%.
- Growth and inflation: US third-quarter GDP grew at an annualised 3.4%, and the PCE price index rose 0.5% in September, its largest monthly increase since March. The employment cost index rose 0.8% in the third quarter.
- Energy: WTI settled at $104.12 on Friday and rose more than 15% in October. Brent's January contract settled at $113.43. A tanker was hit by limpet mines in the Strait of Hormuz, restoring a war risk premium.
- Tech sell-off: The Nasdaq fell 2.86% on Friday and 2% on the week as worries about AI spending hit big technology names. That supported demand for Treasuries.
- The UK: Bank Rate sits at 3.75%. At the last meeting six members voted to hold and three for a hike, per TMGM, which sets up Thursday's decision.
This week's calendar (UK time)
US clocks went back on Sunday, so US releases are once again five hours behind London.
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov, 15:00 | US ISM Manufacturing PMI (October) | First read on factory activity after a strong GDP quarter. |
| Tue 3 Nov, all day | US midterm elections | Results arrive overnight and can move the dollar and Treasuries on fiscal expectations. |
| Wed 4 Nov, 13:30 | US Treasury quarterly refunding statement | Sets how much debt the Treasury plans to sell, which feeds into yields. |
| Thu 5 Nov | Bank of England rate decision | Bank Rate is 3.75% after a 6–3 vote last time. A hawkish split would matter for GBP/USD. |
| Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 | US nonfarm payrolls (October) | Consensus sits around +55,000 to +65,000 jobs, with unemployment at 4.2%. A key input for the Fed's December decision. |
Off the chart
The AI build-out is starting to show up in big tech's cash flow. According to Investrade, Meta posted its first negative free cash flow since 2012, Google's quarterly free cash flow was negative, and Amazon's trailing free cash flow turned negative after it set out heavy spending plans. These companies are funding data centres faster than their businesses generate spare cash. That concern helped drive the Nasdaq to a third straight weekly fall, its longest losing run since March.
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- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, 28 October 2026
- Investrade: Market Review, 30 October 2026
- CapitalStreetFX: Daily commodity report, 31 October 2026
- Capp Notes: Closing Look, Friday 30 October 2026
- InstaForex: Dollar little changed on Friday
- Fortune: Current price of gold, 30 October 2026
- RTTNews: Dollar index edged down last week
- FXMacroData: FX market recap, 31 October 2026
- TMGM: A split BoE votes on November 5 with the pound near 1.34
- FatTail: Week ahead, 2 to 6 November 2026
- Bank of England: MPC dates for 2026
This report is general market information, not financial advice or a forecast. Trading leveraged products such as forex and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.